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On Pigs and Panic
Apr. 30th, 2009 12:13 pmI'd like to say a few words regarding Swine Flu. The overall agitation level of the people around me regarding the spread of this disease has risen at an alarming rate. I don't want to make it sound like a disease that is killing people is somehow insignificant; however, I feel that the current public frenzy is unjustified for the risks we are facing.
First: we are not yet in a state that has been classified as a pandemic by the CDC. However, even when we reach that point (and I expect we will), I fear that the word 'pandemic' has not been properly defined for the public's benefit. As a rule, when a new disease arises, we refer to this as an outbreak. When an outbreak has the potential to spread and begins moving to other populations, it becomes an epidemic. Usually epidemics can be contained such that their advance can eventually be stopped. When they cannot, they are referred to as a pandemic - an epidemic where the potentially exposed population is the entire world. However: defining something as a pandemic is not a statement of the relative severity of the disease or its mortality rate. It's also not a statement of how likely you are to catch it. It merely means that everybody has the potential to be exposed. Even incredibly un-infectious, non-lethal diseases can be pandemics. So: just because it's a pandemic is not a reason to get all excited -- the 'pan' does NOT stand for 'panic'. It just means you're potentially at risk, but frankly, if you've been watching the news and hearing about new cases cropping up everywhere, you know this already.
Second: if there is a good time for a flu pandemic to occur, it's right now: May. This is the perfect time to catch wind of an influenza variant, assess its risk, create tools to fight it, and minimize the risk to the general population. This is because all variants of the flu, for reasons that are not thoroughly understood, peak in the winter and all but die out in the summer. We have no reason to expect that this strain will be any different -- the armor it has to repel our immune systems may differ from other flu strains, but the basics of how the virus works remains the same. I am expecting that at the hottest part of the year, this virus will have dropped off to a very low level. This will buy us the time to develop a vaccine.
Third: developing a vaccine for flu is not hard. Unlike previous pandemics such as the 1918 outbreak, we now have a pretty good understanding of how to do it. You culture the virus, kill it, and then inject it into peoples' bodies. Our immune systems get to play with the dead protein coat on the outside of the virus without having to deal with having a live, nasty virus inside us. Once they've gotten to the point where they can recognize the protein coat, the immune system can make antibodies for it. Then, when we get real, live viruses inside us, our bodies know how to attack them. We know how this works, and it works every time. There's no mystery that our scientists have to race against the clock to solve. We're culturing the virus now, and we could mass-produce a vaccine within several months if we had to. The only thing that prevents us from doing this is the cost.
Fourth: even though people are dying, this is not the most virulent, lethal flu variant we have seen. The majority of people who are getting it are surviving. It seems to respond well to conventional flu treatments such as Tamiflu, and we have plenty of that on hand. Americans also live in a country with a pretty good system of medical care (I decline to participate in the health insurance squabble at this time). If we get sick, we have excellent facilities available to take care of us and keep us from dying.
You should probably not be as concerned about the swine flu as you actually are. As long as you take reasonable precautions -- sanitize; keep hands away from mouth and nose; don't get coughed on; don't lick doorknobs -- the chances are slim that you'll get the disease even if it's a pandemic. If you do get the disease, your chances for survival are excellent, and the odds are good that you'll suffer about as much as you would if you got a regular case of the flu. I like our chances in America a lot better than I do in Mexico or in even poorer countries, but even for third-world nations, I expect that the time of year will lead to a dampening effect on mortality rates.
Go on about your lives, be careful, and don't worry so much.
First: we are not yet in a state that has been classified as a pandemic by the CDC. However, even when we reach that point (and I expect we will), I fear that the word 'pandemic' has not been properly defined for the public's benefit. As a rule, when a new disease arises, we refer to this as an outbreak. When an outbreak has the potential to spread and begins moving to other populations, it becomes an epidemic. Usually epidemics can be contained such that their advance can eventually be stopped. When they cannot, they are referred to as a pandemic - an epidemic where the potentially exposed population is the entire world. However: defining something as a pandemic is not a statement of the relative severity of the disease or its mortality rate. It's also not a statement of how likely you are to catch it. It merely means that everybody has the potential to be exposed. Even incredibly un-infectious, non-lethal diseases can be pandemics. So: just because it's a pandemic is not a reason to get all excited -- the 'pan' does NOT stand for 'panic'. It just means you're potentially at risk, but frankly, if you've been watching the news and hearing about new cases cropping up everywhere, you know this already.
Second: if there is a good time for a flu pandemic to occur, it's right now: May. This is the perfect time to catch wind of an influenza variant, assess its risk, create tools to fight it, and minimize the risk to the general population. This is because all variants of the flu, for reasons that are not thoroughly understood, peak in the winter and all but die out in the summer. We have no reason to expect that this strain will be any different -- the armor it has to repel our immune systems may differ from other flu strains, but the basics of how the virus works remains the same. I am expecting that at the hottest part of the year, this virus will have dropped off to a very low level. This will buy us the time to develop a vaccine.
Third: developing a vaccine for flu is not hard. Unlike previous pandemics such as the 1918 outbreak, we now have a pretty good understanding of how to do it. You culture the virus, kill it, and then inject it into peoples' bodies. Our immune systems get to play with the dead protein coat on the outside of the virus without having to deal with having a live, nasty virus inside us. Once they've gotten to the point where they can recognize the protein coat, the immune system can make antibodies for it. Then, when we get real, live viruses inside us, our bodies know how to attack them. We know how this works, and it works every time. There's no mystery that our scientists have to race against the clock to solve. We're culturing the virus now, and we could mass-produce a vaccine within several months if we had to. The only thing that prevents us from doing this is the cost.
Fourth: even though people are dying, this is not the most virulent, lethal flu variant we have seen. The majority of people who are getting it are surviving. It seems to respond well to conventional flu treatments such as Tamiflu, and we have plenty of that on hand. Americans also live in a country with a pretty good system of medical care (I decline to participate in the health insurance squabble at this time). If we get sick, we have excellent facilities available to take care of us and keep us from dying.
You should probably not be as concerned about the swine flu as you actually are. As long as you take reasonable precautions -- sanitize; keep hands away from mouth and nose; don't get coughed on; don't lick doorknobs -- the chances are slim that you'll get the disease even if it's a pandemic. If you do get the disease, your chances for survival are excellent, and the odds are good that you'll suffer about as much as you would if you got a regular case of the flu. I like our chances in America a lot better than I do in Mexico or in even poorer countries, but even for third-world nations, I expect that the time of year will lead to a dampening effect on mortality rates.
Go on about your lives, be careful, and don't worry so much.
